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Conclusion:  The uncertainties and challenges associated with NETs deployment are significant. While NETs are capable of making a contribution to tackling climate change, particularly for ‘stubborn’ non-point source emissions, they are very unlikely to alter the sheer scale of mitigation required between now and 2050. While it is conceivable that there is significant technical potential beyond 2050, this is extremely uncertain.

Nevertheless, it makes sense to continue investing in the development of ‘low probability, high impact’ post- 2050 options in the hope that viable, large-scale NETs might be available in the unfortunate (but increasingly likely) event that they are required. The nature of these investments will vary by technology, but one thing is certain – without viable CCS large-scale post-2050 NETs will not be available. In addition to these observations, there are several related recommendations that carbon-intensive sectors and policymakers should take into account when considering NETs: 

First, ‘no-regrets’ NETs (NR NETs), which are characterised by low upfront capital costs, co-benefits (such as enhanced soil fertility), no CCS dependence, economic and environmental co-benefits, and fewer uncertainties, include afforestation, soil carbon improvements, and biochar. Even considering the potential for limited release of stored carbon in the future, they are the most promising NETs between now and 2050. To the extent that NR NETs create additional carbon budget, this should be reserved for the residual emissions (emissions after feasible mitigation actions) from important, but ‘stubborn’ non-point source emitters like agriculture and aviation. It is possible that NR NETs will have a niche role by 2050 offsetting these difficult to mitigate emissions sources. Policymakers and the owners and operators of assets in the relevant sectors should work together to maximise NR NETs deployment, minimise residual emissions from stubborn sectors, and develop plausible deployment pathways.

Secondly, the question of the cost of NETs and how those costs are shared is of profound importance for a range of issues, including the following: understanding how assets might be impacted by such costs; securing the cash flows and financing necessary for NETs deployment; and identifying implications for fairness and sustainable development. The challenge of commissioning and paying for conventional CCS demonstration plants highlights how difficult these issues are to resolve. International cooperation to address free riding and related issues is also required and this should be overlaid on to existing international processes and negotiations. 

Thirdly, successful NETs deployment would not mean business as usual for carbon-intensive assets. Sectors (and consumers) will have to pay directly or indirectly for the cost of mitigation actions, and quite probably the cost of negative emissions deployment, to address overshoot and stubborn emissions from non-point sources. NETs deployment addresses risk on the one hand (by extending carbon budgets), and creates it on the other (through new and uncertain costs). NETs should not be seen as a deus ex machina that will ‘save the day’. Consequently, businesses and investors need to factor carbon asset risk into their business planning and strategic asset allocation processes. Scenario planning and regular assessments of how carbon budgets are being translated into policy and regulation will be important,87 as is work to understand other environment-related risks that could strand assets. 

Fourthly, CCS is a key bottleneck for post-2050 NETs and this should be addressed to keep the option open for significant future deployment of DAC, Ocean Liming, and BECCS. While this option is uncertain, it is of sufficiently high potential impact to merit investment, as long as a possible dilemma can be resolved: deploying conventional CCS today results in positive net emissions and uses finite geological storage that might constrain storage capacity in the future; but unless conventional CCS is deployed at scale, the technology for negative emissions CCS might never be developed. The trade-off between these options and to what extent conventional 87 See: Caldecott, B. L., J. Tilbury and C. Carey (2014). Stranded Assets and Scenarios. Discussion Paper, Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford.Stranded Carbon Assets and Negative Emissions Technologies – February 2015 33 CCS needs to be deployed for DAC, Ocean Liming, and BECCS to be viable future options is an important area for future research. 

Finally, it is clear that attaining negative emissions is in no sense an easier option than reducing current emissions. To remove CO2 on a comparable scale to the rate it is being emitted inevitably requires effort and infrastructure on a comparable scale to global energy or agricultural systems. Combined with the potentially high costs and energy requirements of several technologies, and the global effort needed to approach the technical potentials discussed previously, it is clear that very large-scale negative emissions deployment, if it were possible, is not in any sense preferable to timely decarbonisation of the energy and agricultural systems. 

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Campbell Soup CEO Says Distrust of ‘Big Food’ a Growing Problem

Campbell Soup CEO Denise Morrison pointed to the growing skepticism of large food makers that has resulted from consumers’ changing tastes as a key challenge for her industry.

The company, whose portfolio of products ranges from V8 juice to Pepperidge Farm cake to its namesake soups, has found itself grappling with big changes in consumer behavior, in particular growing interest in fresh food and consumers much more keen to know what impact what they’re eating is having on their health and where it’s from.

Campbell Soup CEO Denise Morrison said consumers don’t trust big food makers, and the company announced a $200 million a year cost-cutting program to help its sagging profit margins

On top of that has been a “mounting distrust of so-called Big Food, the large food companies and legacy brands on which millions of consumers have relied on for so long,” Campbell CEO Denise Morrison said on Wednesday at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York meeting in New York.

“Like other companies in our industry, we’re contending with now not just the long-term impact of the Great Recession on consumer purchasing behavior, or the increasingly complex public dialog when it comes to food, or the regulatory environment for food.” What’s more, the traditional avenue for selling Campbell’s products—grocery stores—are coming under a lot of pressure from alternative retailers she said.

Campbell recently lowered its full-year results forecast after only one quarter, suggesting it doesn’t expect much relief in the pressure on its profit margins anytime soon. In January, Campbell said it would re-organize its divisions according to product category, rather than by geographic region. It plans to eliminate some management layers as well. Campbell estimates its cost-cutting measures will save it $200 million a year.

Campbell is by no means the only food maker struggling to adapt to new consumer behavior. Last week, cereal maker Kellogg cut its long-term annual revenue growth estimate to a range of 1% to 3%, excluding some items, from an earlier forecast of 3% to 4%, citing poor cereal and snacks sales.

Morrison’s comments about adapting to changing consumer attitudes echoed those of a major competitor. “I don’t think Kraft has done as aggressive of a job in this regard as we need to,” said John Cahill, who in December became CEO of Kraft Foods, last week. He noted that Kraft has lost market share in 40% of its U.S. businesses in 2014. Also last week, ConAgra, the maker of Chef Boyardee, announced it was naming a new CEO—the ex chief at Hillshire Brands, Sean Connolly—and lowered its earnings guidance for the year ending in May.

All this turmoil is enough to give any food executive indigestion.

Take A Trim Tab Approach To Climate Change – Business focus

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from the curator:  Last fall, Amy Edmondson, Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management at Harvard Business School, wrote a thought provoking article describing the importance of business leaders “to get off the sidelines and make a difference.” I couldn’t agree more!

The Soil-to-Table mailing has assumed a recipe of 3-parts food, and 1-part environmental advocacy due to a required interdisciplinary “solutions of change” approach needed to rectify these closely tied systemic problems.  

As Professor Edmondson discusses, the only force with a quick enough cadence to address spiraling climate and health issues is the free market.  The good news, for the health of the planet and its beings, the consumer seems ready to buy based on value, provenance and a storyline for the betterment of the future.  In the book ‘Immoderate Greatness’, William Ophuls navigates history with a summary of why civilizations inevitably fail.  Hubris, corruption and greed seem constants throughout social anthropology, but the change agent in our modern world will be our ability to break from our apeish hard-wired short-term perspective that has plagued man’s past great empires and start to plan for our future, our kid’s future, and hopefully an evolved cultural belief of seventh generation sustainability – which may take some convincing weather events and food shortages amplified across the broad shoulders of the information age. The ability to quantifying how climate change will affect and effect personal and cultural well-being will expedite adoption of this forward thinking, especially when properly delivered to capital market gatekeepers as a pragmatic multi-prong advantage to protect long-horizon real assets – while also harvesting new cash-flow opportunities by fueling products that best align with the ethos of GenX, Millennial and soon GenZ consumers.  

Paulson, Bloomberg and Stayer seem to have the proper formula with Risky Business – where a fiscally savvy appeal to the insurance mainstay and large scale institutional investors should act as unprecedented trim tabs that will quickly influence markets, and later sway a reactionary political system.  IMO – the Risky Business approach should act as a framework for the future of food that will have to take into account the skyrocketing cost of healthcare, environmental impact, misplaced subsidies when quantifying the "true costs” of modern food production and systems.


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Take A Trim Tab Approach To Climate Change | FORBES:

The “bully pulpit”—a term coined by Theodore Roosevelt back when the word “bully” meant terrific—originally referred to the US presidency and its tremendous potential for speaking out and influencing public opinion. Nowadays, the term describes any position with the potential to get the public’s attention, and thereby educate people to influence the tide of events.

Prominent business leaders have a bully pulpit, if they want to take it, on the issue of climate change and environmental sustainability. Today’s business leaders have visibility and media access that is unparalleled in history. No longer the gray-flannel-suited organization men of yesterday avoiding the spotlight even in senior positions, today’s businessmen and women have Facebook pages, media offices, press releases, and much more at their disposal. But do they use these pulpits well?

Large and growing numbers of business leaders acknowledge, behind closed doors—and some doors that are distinctly ajar—the threats to future generations, and even to business and society in the near term, created by their operations. For just one example, earlier this year a New York Times article reported that a growing number of business leaders are viewing climate change as a threat to supply chains and thus ultimately bottom lines. A good start. But CEOs of global companies like Coca-Cola , the company figuring most prominently in the Times piece, and Nike (also mentioned) must start to recognize and take responsibility for using the bully pulpit that they in fact occupy.

When elected officials don’t own this crucial responsibility, other leaders in society must step into the vacuum. Why not business? Often depicted as greedy and shortsighted, consumed with this quarter’s profits and blind to the larger impact of their actions on society, business leaders face a crucial opportunity today to change that perception (and that reality).

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, many thoughtful leaders throw up their arms, thinking, understandably, that my company is just a drop in the bucket. “Until regulations happen,” they muse (and they will, eventually, just perhaps not fast enough to make the difference the world sorely needs), “there’s really nothing I, or my company, can do to make a difference.” That’s where the “trim tab” comes in.

Quoting Wikipedia, “Trim tabs are small surfaces connected to the trailing edge of a larger control surface on a boat or aircraft” (e.g., a rudder on an ocean liner) to control or alter the direction of a very large craft (e.g., the ocean liner itself). How do you change the direction of an enormous ship like the Queen Mary? The rudder itself is far too big to be easily maneuvered by a single skipper. The trim tab, however, is tiny and thus easy for the captain to shift. The small trim tab’s movement then creates a low-pressure zone that pulls the rudder around. Inventor and futurist Buckminster Fuller, with whom I worked years ago as a geodesic engineer, pointed out that anyone can act as a trim tab, in part by recognizing the potential downstream influence of small, high-leverage actions pointing in the right new direction. The trim tab’s tiny movement has leverage. The right shift in the right place at the right time.

Business leaders must recognize the trim tab principle. Don’t wait for the rest of the industry to act first . Just get started. Contribute, through action, to building pressure that pulls on the rudder and ultimately changes the course of the ocean liner. Of course when you’re changing social systems, it’s hard to know the precise mechanics of the influence your business actions can and will have. But it’s a given that your business won’t have any influence at all if no changes are made.

Pick your approach. Bully pulpit (advocacy, voice) as a means of influence? Or trim tab (small, well-placed actions that start a trend) as a means of influence? Your pick.

Either way, it’s time for business leaders to get off the sidelines and make a difference.

About the author:  Amy Edmondson is the Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management at Harvard Business School.

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